NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP CSF
Points 60.7 67.9
Total Points   128.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 15.4
Points From Free Throws 12.9 17.7
Shooting CP CSF
Field Goals Made 20.8 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 51.3
Field Goal % 39.2% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 12.9 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 24.9
Free Throw % 70.9% 71.1%
Ball Control CP CSF
Rebounds 31.5 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.2
Turnovers 11.6 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 4.6 6.2
Fouls 17.3 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP CSF
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 66.5
% of Possessions with CP CSF
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 20.0%
Player Fouled 23.6% 25.5%
Turnover 17.0% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP CSF
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 28.0%