NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP UCSD
Points 64.5 76.5
Total Points   141.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 20.8
Points From Free Throws 10.8 16.7
Shooting CP UCSD
Field Goals Made 23.5 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 57.0
Field Goal % 42.6% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 10.8 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 22.5
Free Throw % 70.9% 74.1%
Ball Control CP UCSD
Rebounds 29.7 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 10.7
Turnovers 10.6 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.6
Steals 3.6 5.7
Fouls 16.5 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP UCSD
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 70.4
% of Possessions with CP UCSD
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 24.5%
Player Fouled 21.6% 24.2%
Turnover 15.5% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP UCSD
Shot Blocked 4.7% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 31.7%