NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SYR ILL
Points 75.6 87.6
Total Points   163.2
Points From 2-Pointers 45.0 45.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 27.4
Points From Free Throws 13.5 15.0
Shooting SYR ILL
Field Goals Made 28.2 31.7
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 63.8
Field Goal % 45.2% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 46.7 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 15.6 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 13.5 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 20.4
Free Throw % 72.8% 73.8%
Ball Control SYR ILL
Rebounds 28.3 43.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 14.0
Turnovers 7.8 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.2
Steals 6.7 4.0
Fouls 14.9 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SYR ILL
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 76.9
% of Possessions with SYR ILL
2 Point Attempt 56.9% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.1% 27.4%
Player Fouled 17.9% 20.2%
Turnover 10.6% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SYR ILL
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 39.9%