NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAU ALA
Points 82.3 92.7
Total Points   174.9
Points From 2-Pointers 41.9 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 35.4
Points From Free Throws 19.8 15.1
Shooting FAU ALA
Field Goals Made 27.8 32.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 67.4
Field Goal % 45.3% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.3% 57.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 30.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 19.8 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 27.3 19.8
Free Throw % 72.6% 76.4%
Ball Control FAU ALA
Rebounds 34.9 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 13.2
Turnovers 10.0 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.4
Steals 6.8 5.5
Fouls 16.1 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAU ALA
Total Possessions 76.8
Effective Scoring Chances 77.9 79.9
% of Possessions with FAU ALA
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 33.8%
Player Fouled 23.8% 21.0%
Turnover 13.0% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAU ALA
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 35.7%