NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSU TXST
Points 73.8 74.1
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 43.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 12.5
Points From Free Throws 14.5 17.8
Shooting GSU TXST
Field Goals Made 26.4 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 58.2
Field Goal % 44.3% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 43.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 4.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 14.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 29.0%
Free Throws Made 14.5 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 25.2
Free Throw % 75.0% 70.3%
Ball Control GSU TXST
Rebounds 33.8 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.3
Turnovers 9.7 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.4
Steals 5.1 5.7
Fouls 16.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSU TXST
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 73.7
% of Possessions with GSU TXST
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 51.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 17.0%
Player Fouled 20.7% 23.0%
Turnover 13.5% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSU TXST
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 31.1%