NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HP BEL
Points 77.9 80.3
Total Points   158.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 23.3
Points From Free Throws 17.8 16.3
Shooting HP BEL
Field Goals Made 26.3 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 57.9
Field Goal % 42.9% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 17.8 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 22.3
Free Throw % 77.9% 73.1%
Ball Control HP BEL
Rebounds 39.2 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 6.6
Turnovers 10.4 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 4.8 5.4
Fouls 16.7 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Belmont

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HP BEL
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 71.0
% of Possessions with HP BEL
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 25.7%
Player Fouled 22.4% 22.7%
Turnover 14.1% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HP BEL
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 33.6% 20.0%