NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HP UNCA
Points 80.0 76.2
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 19.3
Points From Free Throws 20.7 19.4
Shooting HP UNCA
Field Goals Made 25.9 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 55.8
Field Goal % 43.6% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 20.7 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 26.5 25.9
Free Throw % 77.9% 75.0%
Ball Control HP UNCA
Rebounds 39.8 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.5 7.8
Turnovers 9.8 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.4
Steals 4.7 4.1
Fouls 18.7 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: High Point

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HP UNCA
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 71.0
% of Possessions with HP UNCA
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 21.7%
Player Fouled 23.9% 25.9%
Turnover 13.6% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HP UNCA
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 36.8% 22.9%