NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT VAN
Points 80.2 63.3
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 34.4 17.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 12.6
Shooting PITT VAN
Field Goals Made 28.3 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 57.0
Field Goal % 45.9% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 29.0 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.5% 25.4%
Free Throws Made 12.1 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 17.8
Free Throw % 73.0% 70.7%
Ball Control PITT VAN
Rebounds 39.6 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.3
Turnovers 7.2 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.9
Steals 4.7 4.1
Fouls 13.9 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT VAN
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 67.4
% of Possessions with PITT VAN
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 36.3% 30.0%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.4%
Turnover 10.6% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT VAN
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 22.2%