NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT SJU
Points 73.6 72.7
Total Points   146.2
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 26.8 18.6
Points From Free Throws 14.6 13.6
Shooting PITT SJU
Field Goals Made 25.0 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 59.2
Field Goal % 41.0% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 14.6 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 18.3
Free Throw % 73.0% 74.2%
Ball Control PITT SJU
Rebounds 35.6 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 10.9
Turnovers 8.1 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 5.2
Steals 5.9 4.3
Fouls 13.5 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT SJU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 70.5
% of Possessions with PITT SJU
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 25.4%
Player Fouled 22.8% 19.5%
Turnover 11.6% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT SJU
Shot Blocked 8.8% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 30.8%