NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNI INST
Points 72.3 82.1
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 33.7
Points From Free Throws 13.5 14.8
Shooting UNI INST
Field Goals Made 26.1 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 55.1
Field Goal % 45.4% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 25.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 65.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 29.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 13.5 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 18.3
Free Throw % 70.8% 80.7%
Ball Control UNI INST
Rebounds 29.8 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 5.4
Turnovers 8.7 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 1.6
Steals 6.1 5.1
Fouls 15.9 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNI INST
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 65.9
% of Possessions with UNI INST
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 33.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 37.8%
Player Fouled 22.5% 22.3%
Turnover 12.2% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNI INST
Shot Blocked 3.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 18.2% 18.7%