NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EIU TNST
Points 67.4 71.0
Total Points   138.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.0 18.0
Points From Free Throws 16.3 17.8
Shooting EIU TNST
Field Goals Made 23.0 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 49.1
Field Goal % 39.9% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.6% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 16.3 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 23.4
Free Throw % 73.7% 76.1%
Ball Control EIU TNST
Rebounds 31.8 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 7.4
Turnovers 9.8 14.2
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.0
Steals 8.0 4.9
Fouls 17.9 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: E Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EIU TNST
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 63.4
% of Possessions with EIU TNST
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 19.8% 22.3%
Player Fouled 22.5% 25.6%
Turnover 14.0% 20.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 11.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken EIU TNST
Shot Blocked 8.2% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 26.0%