NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU HOW
Points 78.4 65.2
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 26.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 23.8
Points From Free Throws 18.4 15.4
Shooting GMU HOW
Field Goals Made 26.5 20.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.3 53.0
Field Goal % 51.6% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 13.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 60.6% 41.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 18.4 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 20.3
Free Throw % 74.1% 76.0%
Ball Control GMU HOW
Rebounds 33.2 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 19.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 9.9
Turnovers 10.0 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.6
Steals 5.8 5.1
Fouls 15.7 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Howard

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU HOW
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 65.6
% of Possessions with GMU HOW
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 27.0%
Player Fouled 26.6% 23.2%
Turnover 14.7% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU HOW
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 28.8%