NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU GW
Points 75.2 68.7
Total Points   143.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.6 26.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 28.1
Points From Free Throws 12.7 13.7
Shooting GMU GW
Field Goals Made 27.3 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 55.8
Field Goal % 44.9% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 13.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 29.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 12.7 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 18.2
Free Throw % 74.1% 75.4%
Ball Control GMU GW
Rebounds 38.1 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 7.9
Turnovers 8.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.2
Steals 5.4 5.5
Fouls 13.7 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Wshgtn

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU GW
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 66.7
% of Possessions with GMU GW
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 38.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 33.2%
Player Fouled 19.8% 19.8%
Turnover 12.9% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU GW
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 22.3%