NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU PROV
Points 55.5 69.3
Total Points   124.8
Points From 2-Pointers 26.6 30.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 20.1
Points From Free Throws 13.4 19.1
Shooting SPU PROV
Field Goals Made 18.4 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 49.0
Field Goal % 32.8% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 13.3 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 27.9
2 Point Shooting % 32.7% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.6 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 13.4 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 25.6
Free Throw % 71.2% 74.5%
Ball Control SPU PROV
Rebounds 33.0 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.6
Turnovers 11.1 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.8
Steals 6.2 5.5
Fouls 19.5 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Providence

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU PROV
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 64.6
% of Possessions with SPU PROV
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 35.7%
3 Point Attempt 19.3% 27.0%
Player Fouled 22.1% 28.6%
Turnover 16.4% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU PROV
Shot Blocked 10.0% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 27.9%