NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU MRST
Points 57.6 57.9
Total Points   115.5
Points From 2-Pointers 25.9 26.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 16.7
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.4
Shooting SPU MRST
Field Goals Made 18.0 19.0
Field Goals Attempted 49.1 47.5
Field Goal % 36.8% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 12.9 13.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 43.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 19.8
Free Throw % 71.2% 72.8%
Ball Control SPU MRST
Rebounds 34.7 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 6.9
Turnovers 11.7 12.6
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.0
Steals 6.5 5.3
Fouls 17.1 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: St Peters

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU MRST
Total Possessions 65.0
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 59.3
% of Possessions with SPU MRST
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.7% 22.8%
Player Fouled 25.1% 26.2%
Turnover 18.0% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU MRST
Shot Blocked 6.4% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 22.2%