NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SPU MD
Points 54.5 66.9
Total Points   121.4
Points From 2-Pointers 26.5 30.8
Points From 3-Pointers 13.3 14.3
Points From Free Throws 14.8 21.7
Shooting SPU MD
Field Goals Made 17.7 20.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.6 48.3
Field Goal % 33.6% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 35.0% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 14.8 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 28.5%
Free Throws Made 14.8 21.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 29.7
Free Throw % 71.2% 73.1%
Ball Control SPU MD
Rebounds 32.7 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.6
Turnovers 12.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 5.0
Steals 5.1 5.5
Fouls 20.4 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SPU MD
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 66.2
% of Possessions with SPU MD
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.6% 21.2%
Player Fouled 24.3% 30.6%
Turnover 18.3% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SPU MD
Shot Blocked 10.6% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 32.6%