NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ELON NCAT
Points 73.5 67.3
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 18.6
Points From Free Throws 12.6 12.9
Shooting ELON NCAT
Field Goals Made 26.0 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 58.8
Field Goal % 45.1% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.4 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 29.0%
Free Throws Made 12.6 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 18.3
Free Throw % 68.8% 70.8%
Ball Control ELON NCAT
Rebounds 38.9 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 9.8
Turnovers 10.0 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.0
Steals 4.7 5.1
Fouls 13.7 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Elon

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ELON NCAT
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 70.0
% of Possessions with ELON NCAT
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 27.1%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.1%
Turnover 14.7% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ELON NCAT
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 26.0%