NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN USU
Points 69.8 90.4
Total Points   160.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 51.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 19.6
Points From Free Throws 13.6 18.9
Shooting DEN USU
Field Goals Made 24.3 32.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 58.3
Field Goal % 39.3% 55.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 25.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.9% 63.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.4 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 13.6 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 26.1
Free Throw % 70.7% 72.5%
Ball Control DEN USU
Rebounds 29.9 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 31.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.5
Turnovers 9.7 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.2 5.1
Steals 5.0 5.2
Fouls 17.7 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN USU
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 74.0
% of Possessions with DEN USU
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 21.1%
Player Fouled 20.6% 24.0%
Turnover 13.1% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN USU
Shot Blocked 8.9% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 28.1%