NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SH UCF
Points 61.4 79.6
Total Points   141.0
Points From 2-Pointers 26.6 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 24.1
Points From Free Throws 14.8 18.2
Shooting SH UCF
Field Goals Made 20.0 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 58.7
Field Goal % 37.6% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.3 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 39.3% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 14.8 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 26.5
Free Throw % 70.0% 68.6%
Ball Control SH UCF
Rebounds 27.8 45.0
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 15.3
Turnovers 13.5 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 6.1
Steals 6.6 8.0
Fouls 17.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SH UCF
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 75.7
% of Possessions with SH UCF
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 24.8%
Player Fouled 21.6% 23.6%
Turnover 18.7% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SH UCF
Shot Blocked 10.6% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 17.7% 41.7%