NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN PFW
Points 75.6 84.5
Total Points   160.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 27.7
Points From Free Throws 15.0 13.3
Shooting DEN PFW
Field Goals Made 26.1 31.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 63.5
Field Goal % 45.2% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 15.0 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 18.5
Free Throw % 70.7% 71.8%
Ball Control DEN PFW
Rebounds 35.7 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 7.5
Turnovers 12.9 8.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.9
Steals 5.0 6.9
Fouls 14.7 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN PFW
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 74.2
% of Possessions with DEN PFW
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 28.1%
Player Fouled 21.4% 19.5%
Turnover 17.1% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN PFW
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 21.2%