NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ECU APP
Points 63.9 76.0
Total Points   139.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 42.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 21.6
Points From Free Throws 10.5 11.4
Shooting ECU APP
Field Goals Made 23.7 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 65.2 59.4
Field Goal % 36.3% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 45.1 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 39.1% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 10.5 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 16.4
Free Throw % 68.6% 69.5%
Ball Control ECU APP
Rebounds 35.3 41.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 31.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 10.1
Turnovers 8.3 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.7
Steals 7.5 4.7
Fouls 12.9 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: App State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ECU APP
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 69.9
% of Possessions with ECU APP
2 Point Attempt 53.5% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 26.1%
Player Fouled 16.3% 18.4%
Turnover 11.8% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ECU APP
Shot Blocked 9.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 30.1%