NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG HOF
Points 70.3 71.1
Total Points   141.5
Points From 2-Pointers 24.0 28.0
Points From 3-Pointers 36.5 31.7
Points From Free Throws 9.8 11.4
Shooting UNCG HOF
Field Goals Made 24.2 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 54.0
Field Goal % 42.3% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 12.0 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 27.2 26.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 30.0 28.0
3 Point Shooting % 40.5% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 9.8 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.5 15.6
Free Throw % 72.8% 73.2%
Ball Control UNCG HOF
Rebounds 34.9 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 6.7
Turnovers 10.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.5
Steals 5.9 5.6
Fouls 14.5 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG HOF
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 63.6
% of Possessions with UNCG HOF
2 Point Attempt 35.0% 34.9%
3 Point Attempt 38.5% 37.5%
Player Fouled 18.2% 21.6%
Turnover 16.2% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG HOF
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 21.0%