NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORL MCNS
Points 62.9 85.2
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 29.6 45.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 19.8
Points From Free Throws 15.8 19.5
Shooting NORL MCNS
Field Goals Made 20.7 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 57.3
Field Goal % 38.6% 51.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 22.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 29.0% 40.5%
Free Throws Made 15.8 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 28.2
Free Throw % 70.6% 69.1%
Ball Control NORL MCNS
Rebounds 29.9 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 12.6
Turnovers 13.9 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.3
Steals 4.6 7.9
Fouls 18.6 18.8

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORL MCNS
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 74.7
% of Possessions with NORL MCNS
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 19.1%
Player Fouled 26.3% 25.9%
Turnover 19.4% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORL MCNS
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 38.3%