NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORL MISS
Points 63.5 89.1
Total Points   152.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 48.8
Points From 3-Pointers 14.1 21.3
Points From Free Throws 16.0 19.0
Shooting NORL MISS
Field Goals Made 21.4 31.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 59.3
Field Goal % 35.7% 53.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 24.4
2 Pointers Attempted 44.0 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 38.0% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 40.2%
Free Throws Made 16.0 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 26.0
Free Throw % 70.6% 73.0%
Ball Control NORL MISS
Rebounds 30.9 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 19.4 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 12.5
Turnovers 11.7 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.3 7.2
Steals 5.8 6.8
Fouls 17.7 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORL MISS
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 75.6
% of Possessions with NORL MISS
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.3% 20.4%
Player Fouled 22.0% 24.1%
Turnover 16.0% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORL MISS
Shot Blocked 12.2% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 39.1%