NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIAG COLG
Points 63.8 71.2
Total Points   135.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 44.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 15.6
Points From Free Throws 11.3 10.7
Shooting NIAG COLG
Field Goals Made 23.3 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 54.2
Field Goal % 42.9% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 15.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 11.3 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 16.1
Free Throw % 74.1% 66.6%
Ball Control NIAG COLG
Rebounds 29.8 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 6.6
Turnovers 10.0 9.3
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.1
Steals 4.6 6.2
Fouls 12.1 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Colgate

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIAG COLG
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.5 64.1
% of Possessions with NIAG COLG
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 20.2%
Player Fouled 19.4% 18.1%
Turnover 15.0% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIAG COLG
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 22.1%