NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIAG MRST
Points 62.0 65.4
Total Points   127.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.0 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 16.0
Points From Free Throws 14.9 11.8
Shooting NIAG MRST
Field Goals Made 20.9 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 48.3 51.9
Field Goal % 43.2% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 50.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 14.9 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 16.2
Free Throw % 74.1% 72.8%
Ball Control NIAG MRST
Rebounds 30.5 30.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 6.1
Turnovers 12.0 10.5
Blocked Shots 1.7 2.6
Steals 5.4 6.3
Fouls 13.5 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Niagara

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIAG MRST
Total Possessions 66.3
Effective Scoring Chances 60.6 61.9
% of Possessions with NIAG MRST
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 51.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 19.9%
Player Fouled 24.5% 20.4%
Turnover 18.2% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIAG MRST
Shot Blocked 5.1% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 20.2%