NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIAG FAIR
Points 71.3 75.8
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.7 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 20.8
Points From Free Throws 11.6 12.4
Shooting NIAG FAIR
Field Goals Made 26.7 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 57.7
Field Goal % 50.5% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.6% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 11.6 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 16.8
Free Throw % 74.1% 74.0%
Ball Control NIAG FAIR
Rebounds 31.1 29.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 7.5
Turnovers 12.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 1.7 2.0
Steals 4.2 8.4
Fouls 12.4 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Niagara

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIAG FAIR
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 62.7 68.0
% of Possessions with NIAG FAIR
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 24.2%
Player Fouled 20.2% 18.1%
Turnover 18.6% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 12.2% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIAG FAIR
Shot Blocked 3.4% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 23.4%