NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN LAF
Points 70.1 65.7
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.8 25.1
Points From Free Throws 11.8 8.3
Shooting PENN LAF
Field Goals Made 24.7 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 58.8
Field Goal % 42.9% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 26.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 11.8 8.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 12.2
Free Throw % 70.2% 68.2%
Ball Control PENN LAF
Rebounds 38.3 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 7.6
Turnovers 9.3 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.6
Steals 5.0 5.0
Fouls 11.6 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Lafayette

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN LAF
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 66.3
% of Possessions with PENN LAF
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 34.2%
Player Fouled 19.8% 17.2%
Turnover 13.8% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN LAF
Shot Blocked 6.2% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 20.9%