NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MURR TENN
Points 59.3 80.4
Total Points   139.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.3 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 31.5
Points From Free Throws 12.5 14.0
Shooting MURR TENN
Field Goals Made 20.2 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 58.0
Field Goal % 36.2% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.3% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 10.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 12.5 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 18.5
Free Throw % 68.9% 75.4%
Ball Control MURR TENN
Rebounds 30.5 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 10.6
Turnovers 10.5 9.0
Blocked Shots 1.6 4.9
Steals 4.9 6.0
Fouls 15.4 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Tennessee

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MURR TENN
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 69.9
% of Possessions with MURR TENN
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 33.7%
Player Fouled 20.0% 22.6%
Turnover 15.4% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MURR TENN
Shot Blocked 8.4% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 32.5%