NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ULL ASU
Points 69.5 71.4
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 14.5
Points From Free Throws 12.9 16.5
Shooting ULL ASU
Field Goals Made 24.8 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 54.8
Field Goal % 41.2% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 25.4%
Free Throws Made 12.9 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.5 25.2
Free Throw % 73.6% 65.3%
Ball Control ULL ASU
Rebounds 36.7 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.4
Turnovers 12.5 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.1
Steals 6.4 8.0
Fouls 17.2 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ULL ASU
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 70.4
% of Possessions with ULL ASU
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 22.9%
Player Fouled 18.8% 23.4%
Turnover 17.1% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ULL ASU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 24.1%