NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FOR DAY
Points 63.5 75.4
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 22.6
Points From Free Throws 9.0 19.4
Shooting FOR DAY
Field Goals Made 23.1 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 49.3
Field Goal % 37.2% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 28.4 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.0% 42.1%
Free Throws Made 9.0 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.5 25.9
Free Throw % 67.2% 74.7%
Ball Control FOR DAY
Rebounds 33.8 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 6.3
Turnovers 9.9 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.3
Steals 6.3 4.8
Fouls 18.3 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FOR DAY
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 64.2
% of Possessions with FOR DAY
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.7% 23.2%
Player Fouled 17.8% 26.6%
Turnover 14.3% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken FOR DAY
Shot Blocked 6.9% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 22.2%