NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VCU PSU
Points 67.7 66.5
Total Points   134.2
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 29.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 20.3
Points From Free Throws 15.8 16.6
Shooting VCU PSU
Field Goals Made 22.7 21.6
Field Goals Attempted 52.2 55.2
Field Goal % 43.4% 39.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 14.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 15.8 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 22.2
Free Throw % 77.2% 74.9%
Ball Control VCU PSU
Rebounds 36.5 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 8.8
Turnovers 13.2 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.4
Steals 5.9 7.7
Fouls 15.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VCU PSU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 68.5
% of Possessions with VCU PSU
2 Point Attempt 39.5% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 27.7%
Player Fouled 22.0% 22.8%
Turnover 18.9% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken VCU PSU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 24.1%