NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU UNLV
Points 69.4 66.2
Total Points   135.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 15.9
Points From Free Throws 12.8 14.5
Shooting CSU UNLV
Field Goals Made 24.9 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 54.0
Field Goal % 45.8% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 12.8 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 19.9
Free Throw % 74.7% 73.0%
Ball Control CSU UNLV
Rebounds 32.5 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.2
Turnovers 9.8 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.1
Steals 5.1 4.5
Fouls 15.1 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU UNLV
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 66.2
% of Possessions with CSU UNLV
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 21.3%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.7%
Turnover 14.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU UNLV
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 27.4%