NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU SJSU
Points 77.0 61.3
Total Points   138.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 20.5
Points From Free Throws 14.6 8.5
Shooting CSU SJSU
Field Goals Made 27.5 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 56.0
Field Goal % 51.7% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 59.7% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 14.6 8.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 12.5
Free Throw % 74.7% 68.6%
Ball Control CSU SJSU
Rebounds 35.6 27.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 6.6
Turnovers 8.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.3
Steals 4.2 3.9
Fouls 12.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU SJSU
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 63.4
% of Possessions with CSU SJSU
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 28.8%
Player Fouled 23.6% 19.4%
Turnover 12.9% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU SJSU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 18.9%