NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK WKU
Points 83.2 75.0
Total Points   158.2
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 17.2
Points From Free Throws 21.8 17.7
Shooting ARK WKU
Field Goals Made 27.3 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 63.2
Field Goal % 47.8% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 45.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 21.8 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 28.5 24.3
Free Throw % 76.5% 72.7%
Ball Control ARK WKU
Rebounds 37.9 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.8
Turnovers 11.9 12.1
Blocked Shots 7.2 2.4
Steals 6.3 6.5
Fouls 17.6 20.6

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK WKU
Total Possessions 79.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.4 76.8
% of Possessions with ARK WKU
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 19.6%
Player Fouled 26.0% 22.3%
Turnover 15.1% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK WKU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 12.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 24.3%