NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK MISS
Points 76.0 77.5
Total Points   153.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 19.7
Points From Free Throws 20.1 19.1
Shooting ARK MISS
Field Goals Made 25.1 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 59.7
Field Goal % 44.4% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 20.1 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 26.2
Free Throw % 76.5% 73.0%
Ball Control ARK MISS
Rebounds 36.4 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 10.7
Turnovers 11.5 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.3
Steals 5.5 6.7
Fouls 17.5 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK MISS
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 75.3
% of Possessions with ARK MISS
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 21.2%
Player Fouled 23.8% 23.6%
Turnover 15.4% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK MISS
Shot Blocked 7.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 28.3%