NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV SDSU
Points 65.7 70.7
Total Points   136.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 20.6
Points From Free Throws 14.9 15.1
Shooting UNLV SDSU
Field Goals Made 22.2 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 57.6
Field Goal % 40.7% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 14.9 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 20.5
Free Throw % 73.0% 73.7%
Ball Control UNLV SDSU
Rebounds 32.9 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 12.9
Turnovers 10.8 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.3
Steals 5.0 6.6
Fouls 14.9 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV SDSU
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 70.6
% of Possessions with UNLV SDSU
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 28.1%
Player Fouled 22.9% 22.0%
Turnover 15.9% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV SDSU
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 35.8%