NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV SMU
Points 72.7 71.4
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.4 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 21.1
Points From Free Throws 15.2 12.8
Shooting UNLV SMU
Field Goals Made 25.5 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 63.8
Field Goal % 45.7% 40.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 15.2 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 18.7
Free Throw % 73.0% 68.6%
Ball Control UNLV SMU
Rebounds 35.1 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 15.9
Turnovers 10.9 9.7
Blocked Shots 6.0 5.0
Steals 5.2 7.1
Fouls 12.2 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV SMU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 75.1
% of Possessions with UNLV SMU
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 25.9%
Player Fouled 22.1% 17.7%
Turnover 15.9% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV SMU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 10.9%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 39.2%