NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MISS AUB
Points 67.4 82.4
Total Points   149.9
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 19.4 17.8
Shooting MISS AUB
Field Goals Made 21.2 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 59.9
Field Goal % 36.6% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 38.5% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 19.4 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.6 23.8
Free Throw % 73.0% 74.8%
Ball Control MISS AUB
Rebounds 34.2 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 12.5
Turnovers 10.4 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.2 4.6
Steals 7.0 6.2
Fouls 15.9 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MISS AUB
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.8 74.4
% of Possessions with MISS AUB
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 24.3%
Player Fouled 23.6% 22.0%
Turnover 14.4% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MISS AUB
Shot Blocked 7.8% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 35.9%