NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA CCSU
Points 62.0 72.9
Total Points   134.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 19.8
Points From Free Throws 10.1 15.4
Shooting SFPA CCSU
Field Goals Made 22.7 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 54.2
Field Goal % 39.8% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 10.1 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 21.5
Free Throw % 60.1% 71.4%
Ball Control SFPA CCSU
Rebounds 34.1 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 8.8
Turnovers 11.6 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.7 5.7
Steals 5.2 6.5
Fouls 15.4 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Central Conn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA CCSU
Total Possessions 67.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 67.0
% of Possessions with SFPA CCSU
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 24.3%
Player Fouled 18.3% 22.7%
Turnover 17.1% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA CCSU
Shot Blocked 10.7% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 27.5%