NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA GW
Points 65.8 81.7
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 27.2
Points From Free Throws 9.2 17.6
Shooting SFPA GW
Field Goals Made 24.6 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 55.4
Field Goal % 38.6% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 40.7% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 9.2 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 23.3
Free Throw % 60.1% 75.4%
Ball Control SFPA GW
Rebounds 34.4 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 8.5
Turnovers 9.9 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.4
Steals 5.3 5.5
Fouls 15.4 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA GW
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 69.1
% of Possessions with SFPA GW
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 28.8%
Player Fouled 17.3% 21.9%
Turnover 14.1% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA GW
Shot Blocked 9.9% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 27.5%