NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA LIB
Points 62.3 77.4
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 29.5
Points From Free Throws 9.5 11.3
Shooting SFPA LIB
Field Goals Made 23.7 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 55.4
Field Goal % 44.2% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 61.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 9.5 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 17.5
Free Throw % 60.1% 64.5%
Ball Control SFPA LIB
Rebounds 31.0 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 7.8
Turnovers 11.5 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.1
Steals 4.5 4.7
Fouls 16.2 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA LIB
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.5 65.6
% of Possessions with SFPA LIB
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 33.5%
Player Fouled 20.6% 24.2%
Turnover 17.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA LIB
Shot Blocked 5.8% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 25.4%