NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA UMBC
Points 70.5 81.2
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 45.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 25.1
Points From Free Throws 10.7 11.0
Shooting SFPA UMBC
Field Goals Made 26.3 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 65.4 60.6
Field Goal % 40.2% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 22.5
2 Pointers Attempted 42.4 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 58.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 10.7 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 16.2
Free Throw % 60.1% 67.9%
Ball Control SFPA UMBC
Rebounds 37.8 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 8.4
Turnovers 10.5 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.6
Steals 6.4 4.2
Fouls 14.9 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA UMBC
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 70.4
% of Possessions with SFPA UMBC
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 26.4%
Player Fouled 17.2% 20.4%
Turnover 14.3% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA UMBC
Shot Blocked 7.8% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.0% 25.8%