NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA WAG
Points 61.3 66.5
Total Points   127.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 20.7
Points From Free Throws 10.1 11.9
Shooting SFPA WAG
Field Goals Made 22.6 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 56.7
Field Goal % 41.7% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 10.1 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 17.1
Free Throw % 60.1% 69.5%
Ball Control SFPA WAG
Rebounds 35.5 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 10.6
Turnovers 10.4 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.3
Steals 3.6 5.1
Fouls 13.5 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA WAG
Total Possessions 64.6
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 67.1
% of Possessions with SFPA WAG
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 26.9%
Player Fouled 21.2% 20.9%
Turnover 16.1% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA WAG
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 29.9%