NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA MW
Points 58.3 69.7
Total Points   128.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 21.7
Points From Free Throws 11.3 15.1
Shooting SFPA MW
Field Goals Made 21.1 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 51.5
Field Goal % 39.6% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.6% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.2 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 11.3 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 20.2
Free Throw % 60.1% 74.8%
Ball Control SFPA MW
Rebounds 37.6 28.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 6.4
Turnovers 15.9 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.6
Steals 5.6 8.8
Fouls 16.6 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA MW
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 63.4
% of Possessions with SFPA MW
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 18.2% 28.3%
Player Fouled 20.5% 24.2%
Turnover 23.3% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 12.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA MW
Shot Blocked 9.2% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 37.7% 21.1%