NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MRST NAVY
Points 65.7 58.0
Total Points   123.6
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 28.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 14.4
Points From Free Throws 12.8 15.4
Shooting MRST NAVY
Field Goals Made 23.1 18.9
Field Goals Attempted 49.4 52.3
Field Goal % 46.8% 36.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.5 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 40.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 28.1%
Free Throws Made 12.8 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 21.7
Free Throw % 72.8% 71.0%
Ball Control MRST NAVY
Rebounds 33.2 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 10.7
Turnovers 11.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.7 1.8
Steals 4.4 5.8
Fouls 16.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Navy

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MRST NAVY
Total Possessions 65.3
Effective Scoring Chances 60.6 65.6
% of Possessions with MRST NAVY
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 22.1%
Player Fouled 24.4% 24.5%
Turnover 18.3% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MRST NAVY
Shot Blocked 3.6% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 29.1%