NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring M-OH PFW
Points 68.2 71.1
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 25.1
Points From Free Throws 12.7 11.7
Shooting M-OH PFW
Field Goals Made 23.8 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 59.9
Field Goal % 44.7% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 12.7 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 16.3
Free Throw % 71.5% 71.8%
Ball Control M-OH PFW
Rebounds 34.9 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.9 7.9
Turnovers 14.2 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.1
Steals 5.3 8.7
Fouls 14.0 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miami (OH)

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats M-OH PFW
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 69.9
% of Possessions with M-OH PFW
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 31.6%
Player Fouled 22.2% 19.4%
Turnover 19.7% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 12.0% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken M-OH PFW
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 18.4% 21.5%