NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TTU LOU
Points 82.6 69.6
Total Points   152.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 28.7 15.8
Points From Free Throws 17.2 14.4
Shooting TTU LOU
Field Goals Made 27.9 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 56.3
Field Goal % 50.1% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 58.6% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 17.2 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 19.4
Free Throw % 78.5% 74.2%
Ball Control TTU LOU
Rebounds 33.3 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 21.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 9.3
Turnovers 9.9 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.6
Steals 6.7 4.6
Fouls 15.3 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TTU LOU
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 68.4
% of Possessions with TTU LOU
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 21.9%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.7%
Turnover 14.1% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TTU LOU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 27.4%