NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST CARK
Points 86.7 69.6
Total Points   156.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 36.2
Points From 3-Pointers 35.8 20.0
Points From Free Throws 16.1 13.4
Shooting ARST CARK
Field Goals Made 29.4 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.6 61.1
Field Goal % 45.5% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 42.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 30.6 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.9% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 16.1 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 17.8
Free Throw % 70.2% 75.3%
Ball Control ARST CARK
Rebounds 43.2 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 14.1 9.3
Turnovers 8.3 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.8
Steals 6.2 5.5
Fouls 14.1 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST CARK
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 78.4 71.6
% of Possessions with ARST CARK
2 Point Attempt 38.4% 50.9%
3 Point Attempt 34.7% 22.3%
Player Fouled 19.9% 19.4%
Turnover 11.4% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST CARK
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 36.3% 24.2%