NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST AFA
Points 77.8 72.4
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 23.8
Points From Free Throws 15.8 11.3
Shooting ARST AFA
Field Goals Made 26.5 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 55.2
Field Goal % 46.5% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 15.8 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 16.5
Free Throw % 70.2% 68.7%
Ball Control ARST AFA
Rebounds 36.7 28.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 21.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 7.2
Turnovers 8.9 9.5
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.4
Steals 4.6 5.6
Fouls 15.0 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST AFA
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 64.5
% of Possessions with ARST AFA
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 27.1%
Player Fouled 21.2% 22.5%
Turnover 13.3% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST AFA
Shot Blocked 8.2% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 37.3% 23.0%